OF CONFIDENCE, CONTROL, AND CAUSE:
USING BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

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CONFIDENCE
CONTROL
CAUSE

CONFIDENCE – HOW TO DENOTE CONFIDENCE IN EXPERT JUDGMENT USED TO DEVELOP PROBABILITY STRUCTURES?

CONTROL – HOW TO IDENTIFY MANAGEMENT CONTROL AND INFLUENCE OF DECISIONS?

CAUSE – HOW TO DETERMINE CAUSALITY?

CONFIDENCE – HOW TO DENOTE CONFIDENCE IN EXPERT JUDGMENT USED TO DEVELOP PROBABILITY STRUCTURES?

CONTROL – HOW TO IDENTIFY MANAGEMENT CONTROL AND INFLUENCE OF DECISIONS?

CAUSE – HOW TO DETERMINE CAUSALITY?

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KEY FIRST STEP:  WHAT’S THE OBJECTIVE?

KEY FIRST STEP:  WHAT’S THE OBJECTIVE?

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

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NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

NEXT STEPS IN MODEL-BUILDING

USING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN MODEL-BUILDING

USING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN MODEL-BUILDING

USING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN MODEL-BUILDING

USING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN MODEL-BUILDING

USING EXPERT JUDGMENT IN MODEL-BUILDING

KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION

KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION – EXPERT PANELS

KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION – EXPERT PANELS

KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION – EXPERT PANELS

KNOWLEDGE ELICITATION – EXPERT PANELS

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NORTHWEST FOREST PLAN

NORTHWEST FOREST PLAN

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DECISION CRITERIA

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DECISION MODELING

CONTROL

CONFIDENCE – HOW TO DENOTE CONFIDENCE IN EXPERT JUDGMENT USED TO DEVELOP PROBABILITY STRUCTURES?

CONTROL – HOW TO IDENTIFY MANAGEMENT CONTROL AND INFLUENCE OF DECISIONS?

CAUSE – HOW TO DETERMINE CAUSALITY?

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KEY QUESTIONS ABOUT CONTROL

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MANAGEMENT AND CAUSALITY

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POLAR BEARS, STRESSORS, AND
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC

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STRUCTURED DECISION-MAKING TO EVALUATE SPECIES AT RISK

CAUSE

CONFIDENCE – HOW TO DENOTE CONFIDENCE IN EXPERT JUDGMENT USED TO DEVELOP PROBABILITY STRUCTURES?

CONTROL – HOW TO IDENTIFY MANAGEMENT CONTROL AND INFLUENCE OF DECISIONS?

CAUSE – HOW TO DETERMINE CAUSALITY?

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KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

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KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

KEY POINTS ABOUT CAUSALITY

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CONFIDENCE – HOW TO DENOTE CONFIDENCE IN EXPERT JUDGMENT USED TO DEVELOP PROBABILITY STRUCTURES?

CONTROL – HOW TO IDENTIFY MANAGEMENT CONTROL AND INFLUENCE OF DECISIONS?

CAUSE – HOW TO DETERMINE CAUSALITY?

NEW AREAS OF RESEARCH

NEW AREAS OF RESEARCH

NEW AREAS OF RESEARCH

NEW AREAS OF RESEARCH

NEW AREAS OF RESEARCH

CONFIDENCE IN BNS

NEW AREAS OF RESEARCH

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