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Tenth Annual Conference of the Australasian Bayesian Network Modelling Society (ABNMS2018)
December 4-5, 2018 : Workshops
December 6-7, 2018 : Conference
National Wine Centre of Australia, Adelaide



December 6-7, 2018
National Wine Centre of Australia


To cite presentations from the conference, please follow the example below:

Darryn Reid (2018). Intelligence Unknowing. In A. Coutts (chair) Australasian Bayesian Network Modelling Society Conference, Adelaide, South Australia, 2018. See

Thursday 6th: Conference Day 1

8:20Conference registration
8:50Welcome and Conference Opening
Invited Speaker
9:00Integration of Bayesian Network Modelling Technologies: A Review Bruce Marcot and Trent Penman
Session 1: New Developments in Model Building
9:20Application of structural equation modelling, combined with Bayesian Networks, to control confounding bias in environmental impact studies using multivariate data Rezvan Hatami
9:40Inclusion of system reliability in a survivability assessment framework Martin Friebe
10:00What is an optimal value of k in k-fold cross-validation in discrete Bayesian network analysis? Anca Hanea and Bruce Marcot
10:20Morning Tea
Session 1: New Developments in Model Building (Cont.)
10:50Non-flattening Incremental Compilation in OOBNs and iOOBNs Md Samiullah, David Albrecht and Ann Nicholson
11:10Anomaly Detection in Track Data using Bayesian Networks Jonathan Legg, Michele Wilson and Steven Mascaro
Panel Discussion 1
11:40The many faces of BNs Anca Hanea, Ann Nicholson, Bruce Marcot, Trent Penman and Steven Mascaro
Session 2: Environment and Health
13:30Advances in Development and Application of Bayesian Decision Network Modeling: A Wildfire Management Case Study Trent Penman, Brett Cirulis and Bruce Marcot
13:50Supporting a One Health approach to disease prevention using spatial Bayesian networks Helen Mayfield, Carl Smith, John Lowry, Conall Watson, Michael Baker, Mike Kama, Eric Nilles and Colleen Lau
14:10Building a decision-support system for pandemic influenza Freya Shearer, Robert Moss and James McCaw
14:30A continuous pilot Bayesian network to model Antarctic ice sheets Annemarie Christophersen, Elizabeth Keller, Anca Hanea, Nicholas Golledge, Nancy Bertler, Richard Levy and Robert McKay
14:50Afternoon Tea
Session 2: Environment and Health (Cont.)
15:20Application of Bayesian belief networks to better characterise the risk of Legionella colonisation of groundwater aeration units Danladi Yunana and Pierre Le Clech
15:40Prediction of causative pathogen of osteomyelitis using Bayesian network modelling Yue Wu, Steven Mascaro and Tom Snelling
16:00Bayes Nets, Bow-ties and the Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR) Problem David Roser, Michael Short, Nicholas Ashbolt and Rietie Venter
Tool Development
16:20BARD: An online tool for structured group elicitation of Bayesian networks to support analytic reasoning Ann Nicholson
16:40Annual General Meeting
19:00Dinner at Wine Centre

Friday 7th: Conference Day 2

Invited Speaker
9:00Unknowing, Intelligently Darryn Reid
Session 3: Defence and Security Applications
9:40Utilising Bayesian Belief models to assess Land Logistics technologies Greg Sherman
10:00Using a System Dynamics and Bayesian Approach to Assess Operational Effectiveness Denis Shine, Andrew Coutts, Guido Veldhuis, Olaf Binsch
10:20Morning Tea
Session 3: Defence and Security Applications (Cont.)
10:50Defence Decision Analysis with Uncertainty and Interdependency Thang Cao, Tim Wilkin, Vicky Mak-Hau and Minh-Tuan Nguyen
11:10Bayesian Network Meta-Model from Combat Simulation for Defence Decision Analysis Thang Cao and Abida Shahzad
11:30Combining Bayesian Networks and Particle Filters for Early Real-Time Detection of a Bio-weapon Attack Peter Dawson, Robert Moss and Ralph Gailis
11:50Lunch (Finishes 13:30)
Invited Speaker
13:30Eliciting models and networks: Evidence, practicality and research avenues. Victoria Hemming
Panel Discussion 2
14:10The use and abuse of expert judgement Anca Hanea, Victoria Hemming, Bruce Marcot and Annemarie Christophersen
15:10Afternoon Tea
Invited Speaker
15:30EcoQBNs: Toward A New Framework of Ecological Quantum Bayesian Networks Bruce Marcot
16:10Closing Address
16:20Conference Close

Saturday 8th: Day 3

9:00Optional trip to McLaren Vale Wineries
Confirm Attendance on Day 1 of conference

Past conferences

You may also like to check last year's program to see past papers and presentations.


ABNMS would like to gratefully acknowledge our conference sponsors: