The ABNMS BN Repository


2 BNs found.

Book Bags

There are two book bags each containing 10 poker chips. In one bag there are 7 red and 3 blue. In the other bag there are 3 red and 7 blue. Five chips are drawn out of one of the bags and shown to the subject (one at a time then returned to the bag). The subject does not know which bag the chips came from. There is an equal chance that the draws are made from either bag. After each draw the subject reports which bag he believes the chips are coming from and provides a probability that the chips are being drawn from that bag.

The problem comes from the early "revision of judgment" work that indicated that people were conservative with respect to Bayes.

Norsys Software Corp
Netica .dne format
Lawrence D Phillips, W.E. (1966) Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 72(3):346-344
Book bags, poker, Bayes
BPP: The Bayesian Poker Player

The Bayesian Poker Player (BPP) began life as an honours project at Monash in 1993. Since then several honours students have worked on various aspects of the project and some of the work has been written up as research publications. BPP was originally developed to play 5-card stud poker, using Bayesian network technology. In 2006, BPP was converted to play Texas Hold'em Poker, the main online form of poker, and re-written in Python. We have developed a simple GUI interface that allows people to play against BPP online, which is hosted here: <>. This is an ongoing project in which there are still many options for making BPP a better poker player including improving its bluffing strategies and its opponent modelling.

Kevin Korb, Ann Nicholson and Steven Mascaro
Netica .dne format
Korb, K.B., Nicholson, A.E. & Jitnah, N. (1999) Bayesian poker. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 343-350